Jealousy used to ooze from the pores of investment bankers and management consultants every time a colleague announced his or her departure for a top private equity house. The past two years, though, have tipped such envy on its head. Access to debt, the stardust of private equity, has been curtailed, reducing the industry to a bunch of unemployed actors with plenty of talent but no way to use it.

What of 2010? Based on the drama of last year, three key themes are likely to emerge. The first surrounds investment exits. Managers need to realise profits in companies they already own to prove to investors that the global downturn is no barrier to their making money. KKR and Blackstone have already started. Permira is hot on their heels. A buy-out manager is only as good as his last fund, so success is a prerequisite to convince future investors to hand over fresh cash. BC Partners will hope that its plans for some €10bn of public offerings are successful before its latest fund winds up in November.

The second theme is leverage. About $400bn of private equity debt expires over the next five years, according to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary and Data. Much is attached to investments that have underperformed. In 2010, private equity firms will need to convince lenders to ease covenants or extend maturities. While big defaults are unlikely this year, debt negotiations will be a pointer as to who might go broke in later years.