Britain may already be emerging from its most bitter postwar recession, economists said after seeing the latest official data, which showed that industrial production – and manufacturing in particular – expanded in July by more than expected.

Adding to evidence that the UK is emerging from recession, economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated that GDP rose in the three months to August by 0.2 per cent, after a decline of 0.3 per cent in the three months to the end of July – the first time it has risen over a quarterly period since May 2008.

In July, overall industrial production rose by 0.5 per cent and, within that, manufacturing industries' output rose by 0.9 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics. The ONS warned that monthly growth rates were volatile but economists noted that the rise was the strongest for any one month since the start of 2008. In addition, industrial production for June was revised upward.