The recovery in global capital markets in recent months – with the usually quiet summer months still seeing billions of dollars of money raised – has even surprised optimists.

As investors return from summer holidays, the key question will be whether they still want to buy bonds issued by companies, or whether that demand fizzles as confidence in an economic recovery translates into stronger demand for equity offerings. On the flipside, some investors may opt to lock in some of the huge profits made across markets in recent months.

“For some investors we speak to, either the economy rolls over and disappoints into 2010, worthy of a shift into risk-free assets, or macro-acceleration suggests greater opportunity in assets levered to growth, ie equities,” say analysts at Morgan Stanley.