Fair dos to the German government. Its stimulus measures, once derided as puny, have delivered a bigger bang for the buck than anyone expected. Germany and France, partly helped by Germany's stimulus programme, surprisingly exited recession in the second quarter. Both countries' 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth yanked up the eurozone as a whole to only a 0.1 per cent contraction. Economists across the continent are now tweaking their spreadsheets. Coupled with Wednesday's message from the Fed that the US economy may be levelling out, the impression that the worst is over is solidifying.

Yet it is still too early to say more than that. The eurozone recovery could yet falter, or prove sickly. With continuing weakness in Italy and Spain, a return to growth in the 16-nation bloc will rely on France and Germany. And pitfalls are looming. Germany's car scrappage scheme proved remarkably successful at getting usually frugal citizens to splash out; the 40 per cent rise in second-quarter car registrations boosted German consumption exactly when it was needed. About half those cars were imported, many from France – though France benefited, too, from a slightly less generous scrappage scheme.

The impact of cash-for-clunkers will fade, however, as the number of those eligible and willing to participate dwindles. The second main ingredient in Germany's support package – subsidies for companies putting workers on shorter hours – is approaching its sell-by date too. Bank of America estimates the scheme has so far preserved up to 600,000 jobs. But companies are reaching the point where they can no longer afford to keep workers on, subsidies or not. Rising joblessness and dwindling car sales could badly dent consumption later this year.