Behind the wild swings of stock markets this year lie the swings of the inventory cycle. Faced with a generational shock last year, many managers made instant decisions that are now proving to have been mistakes.
Investors have profited by exploiting those mistakes.
The clearest example is in manufacturing. The 50.7 per cent rise in the S&P 500 since its March nadir is in large part predicated on the belief that managers cut back inventories too much last year, and will now need to re-stock.
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