We have a grand new thesis of the emerging markets. For years we had “decoupling”. Once things went bad last year, that turned into a drastic “great recoupling”. Now, we have what looks like a “great re-decoupling”.
But there is a big difference between this episode of emerging markets euphoria and the last, which ended barely a year ago. This time the market really means it.
Let's catch up with some terms. Decoupling was the catch-all term for the notion that the biggest emerging markets, led by China, could generate their own secular growth regardless of events in the developed world. It was said to underpin the huge five-year rally in emerging markets stocks from 2002 to 2007. Commodity prices, boosted by Chinese demand, rose with it.
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