Industrial production growth dropped to 5.4 per cent, down from 8.2 per cent in October, as exports fell by the biggest margin in nearly a decade and the real estate sector continued to decline, according to figures released yesterday.

“Excluding holiday-related distortions, this is the weakest result since the series first began in 1994,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist for Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong. “As a result, 5 per cent [gross domestic product] growth in the first half of 2009 is now a reality, not a risk.”

The latest data to add to the gloom on the state of the Chinese economy emerged as Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in Madrid that next year “China will probably grow at 5 or 6 per cent”.