Over the past year, major US tech companies have spent more than $350bn on AI-related infrastructure, with projections of over $400bn for 2026. This far exceeds the spending of any other nation — most notably China, where total investment is closer to an estimated $100bn.

For many in the west, it may be reassuring that we have companies bold enough and capital markets deep enough to dominate a spending contest. If artificial intelligence is — as prophesied — the one ring to rule them all, then it would seem the west has the future in hand.

That is the optimistic story. Yet there is another possibility: that Silicon Valley’s obsession with AI could mean winning the AI race but losing a broader contest for economic pre-eminence. That follows because the US has gone all-in on AI, while China is spreading its bets across several plausible futures. It all depends on the bet on AI being the right one.