What the Federal Reserve does is often less important than what it signals. And the less it signals, the more uncertainty is in store for investors. This week, expect a quarter-point rate cut and a lot of ambiguity over what happens next.
For one thing, the Fed, like the markets, is flying half-blind. Government agencies are still playing catch-up after Washington’s record 43-day shutdown ended last month. Jobs data and retail sales numbers for October and November have yet to be released. Wednesday’s quarterly update on Fed committee members’ forecasts for rates and inflation may therefore be overtaken when those figures are eventually published next week. Companies and investors making their own 2026 forecasts will need to employ more guesswork than usual.
