The many obvious negatives in markets are just not sticking. That means it’s probably time to brace for a melt-up in the final months of this year.

From the US to France to seemingly now Japan, fund managers are increasingly alarmed about everything from debt sustainability to irrational exuberance in risky markets. Yet the script remains the same as it has been since April’s US tariffs shock: buoyant stocks, red-hot corporate bonds and waves of money splashing in to private markets, all underpinned by a strong belief in the disinflation fairy to keep pulling US interest rates lower. 

Increasingly, the mood is that if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, with even cautious investors hopping along for the ride.