Good morning. The race for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is heating up. According to President Donald Trump, the “Kevins” — Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor — are the frontrunners. But Chris Waller, a current governor of the central bank, leads the pack on the betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Send us your pick: unhedged@ft.com.

US economic data

Without reliable economic data, policymakers and investors resort to guesswork and gossip when making decisions. The US has historically been the gold standard for economic data. But Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has called the reliability of US figures into question. As is often the case, Trump is right that there is a problem, and wildly wrong about the specifics. Yes, there are some reasons to worry about declining US economic data quality. No, the problem is not that the numbers are “rigged”.