A sudden rise in crude prices driven by a renewed fear of a military confrontation between the US and Iran has caught out bearish traders, forcing many to rethink their near-term outlook for the oil market after a period of falling prices.

The price of Brent crude surged 4.3 per cent on Wednesday to close at just under $70 a barrel, the biggest gain since October, as the Trump administration told dependants of American military personnel to leave the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran over the Islamic republic’s expanding nuclear programme.

Oil was roughly flat on Thursday as fears of an immediate military escalation subsided. Still, the rally caught off guard those traders who had been betting that oil would keep falling due to the Opec+ decision to accelerate the return of idled production and an expectation that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs will hurt demand.