The problem with the future is that it hasn’t happened yet. Betting on companies whose value largely resides in educated guesswork is therefore not for the weak of stomach. Nvidia, Palantir, AppLovin and MicroStrategy — the four best-performing US technology stocks of 2024 — are all putting investors through their paces.

Nvidia, through its sheer size, inspires more cortisol than most. The $3tn chipmaker, whose silicon powers the artificial intelligence boom, almost tripled in market capitalisation in 2024, but is down about 6 per cent this year. Its fourth-quarter earnings comfortably beat analysts’ expectations, but investors are more focused on what comes next.

For now, all is going to plan. Boss Jensen Huang says demand for the company’s new high-powered Blackwell chips is “amazing”. Profitability is being squeezed a little by the new ranges, but revenue for the current three-month period should be higher than previously thought. The trouble is that beyond that, detail is elusive. Every quarter is a new nail-biter.