After a spell of soaring prices and steep interest rates, Christine Lagarde this week allowed herself a moment of optimism.

“We are clearly seeing signs of recovery,” the European Central Bank president said on Wednesday. A “phenomenal” job market would be matched by a rebound that, although “timid” at first, would pick up speed over the course of 2024, she added.

Her relieved tone — reflected elsewhere in a sunny Washington during the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings — was understandable. A buoyant US economy, soaring domestic demand in India and waning price pressures elsewhere have reduced the chances of a much-feared global recession to near zero. The IMF now foresees the world economy growing by 3.2 per cent this year, up from the 2.9 per cent projected six months ago.