Much has changed since China’s top Communist party officials gathered in 2020 to set out their economic priorities for the country’s current “five-year plan”. Donald Trump’s frenetic second US presidency has upended the global trading system. An ongoing property slump has battered consumer confidence, compounding the public’s shaken faith in Beijing’s economic management after the sudden abandonment of draconian Covid-19 restrictions. Leaders are increasingly concerned about neijuan, or “involution” — shorthand for industrial overproduction fuelling ferocious price wars across the manufacturing sector.

So there are some understandable notes of caution in the conclusions of the senior cadres who gathered last week to discuss policy for the half-decade from 2026-2030. The communiqué from last week’s meeting, presided over by President Xi Jinping, highlights increasing “uncertainties and unforeseen factors” and looming “profound and intricate changes” to China’s development environment. But there is no retreat from the manufacturing-led development pursued under the current five-year plan. With phrasing likely to strike fear into companies and countries already struggling to compete, the communiqué calls for an acceleration of work “to boost China’s strength in manufacturing” and makes substantially increasing technological self-reliance a top objective.

This too is understandable. While the US and other developed economies thrash about in search of consistent and effective industrial policies, Beijing’s channelling of capital into increasingly advanced manufacturing has helped China become a world leader in strategic sectors such as green energy, batteries and electric vehicles. It increasingly competes at the cutting edge in sectors where just a few years ago it was seen as only a low-cost option. Chinese drugmakers, for example, have struck a record 93 overseas licensing deals worth a combined $85bn in the first eight months of 2025. “We are seeing the strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics, China’s enormous market, its complete industrial system, and its abundant human resources all coming to the fore,” as the communiqué puts it.