The writer is a former global head of research at Morgan Stanley and former group head of research, data and analytics at UBS

Annoying, amusing or indispensable. Every investor will have a sense of how far artificial intelligence has progressed in this sequence. But a hunch won’t get us far. Instead, understanding the kind of future we expect should define our bets. It is not the same to wager on a tidal wave of productivity benefiting most companies as it is to bet on a grinding development favouring a few incumbents. Or a rupture to a new paradigm, bringing the next superstar firms.

Perhaps a good place to start is the most widely accepted assumption — that AI will boost productivity. We may not know who the winners and the losers will be, but we could surmise that most industries will profit from AI as the technology is infused within companies as happened with steam engines and electricity in the past.