Ever since the era of post-cold war globalisation began, a succession of shocks have provoked dark prophecies of its demise. The 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis, Covid lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: each brought fears that sand would clog the wheels of global trade.
Each time the system has survived and even thrived. Supply chains have continued to encircle the world, while digital technology has paved the way for new forms of globalisation.
Global trade now faces its biggest challenge yet, the great-power rivalry between the US and China. In a speech in 2019, the former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd laid out the risks of reducing economic links between the two countries. A “fully decoupled world”, he said, would “[undermine] the global economic growth assumptions of the last 40 years, heralding the return of an iron curtain between East and West.”