They don’t call us dismal scientists for nothing. Nearly 75 per cent of economists surveyed in July by the National Association for Business Economics see a US recession by the end of 2021. But ask for data supporting that forecast and you get no real consensus. There are plenty of theories about trade wars. US growth has slowed. But the usual bubbles and imbalances that trigger recession aren’t yet evident.

With consumption accounting for nearly 70 per cent of growth, a recession has to be transmitted through the US consumer. The main question is when. The good news so far is that Americans remain robust spenders. Consumption grew by 4.7 per cent annualised in the second quarter, the fastest pace in four years. Retail sales have also been strong, with core sales (stripping out volatile categories) accelerating between May and July at the fastest pace in more than 15 years. The Bloomberg consumer comfort gauge of personal finances, factoring in pay growth and equity prices, is near a two-decade high.

Payroll gains have broadly slowed this year, averaging 145,000 jobs a month compared with 215,000 last year. That is the weakest pace since 2010. Given an unemployment rate of only 3.7 per cent, though, that is hardly cause to call in the cavalry. Wage growth remained robust at 3.2 per cent year-on-year in August, the labour force participation rate actually rose and two early warning indicators for the jobs market — hiring for temporary positions and weekly working hours — strengthened.