By 2035, renewables (solar and wind) will account for more than 50 per of global power generation; electric vehicles will be the low-cost option for car, van and small-truck drivers; oil demand will be declining; and gas demand will have peaked. Total energy demand will be plateauing despite a growing global economy and a still-rising population.

This is not, as you might imagine, the latest summary of aspirations from a campaign group such as Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth. Nor is it an ambitious claim by one of the renewables trade associations. In fact, all the statements above are drawn from a serious, considered projection produced by McKinsey, the global management consultancy business.

The quality of the McKinsey energy outlook for 2019 lies in its internal consistency and the clarity of its conclusions. The view presented is simple but entirely credible because of how it is constructed. The authors justify each judgment with a logic that is built on a bottom-up forecast, region by region and sector and sector.