As has been widely expected since July, President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he would no longer certify that the Iran nuclear deal (known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) is in the US national security interest. The decision is a high stakes gamble with low odds of success.

The reality is that the Iran nuclear deal is very much in the US’s national security interest. Moreover, it is clear the Trump administration understands the risks it is taking and how much we could lose should the agreement collapse. That is why Mr Trump did not withdraw the US on Friday, though he accurately noted he could.

But, notwithstanding the risks, the administration is choosing to chase the chimera of a “better deal” with Iran. Mr Trump is betting that, with the appearance of domestic political pressure to reimpose sanctions, Iran and the other signatories to the agreement will be moved to accommodate US concerns by entering new talks to strengthen the core nuclear provisions of the agreement — as well as addressing issues such as terrorism and human rights.