At the end of last week, Beijing fired off more detailed instructions on sectors where direct overseas investment is prohibited, restricted or encouraged respectively, leaving no doubt that the government is determined that there will be no going back to the events of 2015 and 2016. At that time, the renminbi weakened sharply, capital outflows surged and the stock market crashed.
In Beijing’s view, financial risk remains paramount still — even though the scary, unvirtuous circle of a weakening renminbi, ever increasing capital outflows and deficits on both the capital and financial accounts of two years ago has been reversed.
Stability on the financial front in China removes one of the biggest global fears that obsessed investors some months ago. Not all of the improvement is due to Beijing of course — but some is. Still, investors have to wonder whether, even as Beijing reduces financial risks, the political risk that led to huge capital flight continues to lurk beneath the surface.