Moscow is out to change the world order, according to General Philip Breedlove, Nato’s military commander. The entire American military establishment has designated Russia the biggest threat to the US. In response, the Pentagon is beefing up its troops, armour and artillery in eastern Europe, and wants an additional $3.4bn to pay for it.

Meanwhile Barack Obama, the US president, says Russia is “overextended and bleeding” in Syria, and its economy is shrinking “drastically”. The nation is dismissed by others as “a hollow superpower” with no real strategy behind its overseas adventures.

So which picture is accurate? Both. The economy is shrinking. Poverty is on the rise. Without deep, wide-ranging reforms — which few expect on Vladimir Putin’s watch — its prospects are bleak. The president could legally remain in the Kremlin for many years to come, presiding over stagnation at home and, by way of compensation, a confrontational posture abroad.