China bears are getting fat dining on headlines; but details feed the bulls.
On Monday, China announced weak trade data. March exports fell a jarring 15 per cent year on year, when a solid increase was expected; imports dropped 12 per cent, a shade worse than hoped. Sceptics could only shake their heads as mainland China “A” and Hong Kong “H” share indices shrugged and continued their ascent. The explanation is familiar. China has made clear its intention to keep its economy growing, so weak data and low inflation signal more rate cuts ahead.
A flood of cheap money may be a poor-quality reason to chase stock markets higher. Arguments that China is in bubble territory are increasingly persuasive — even if not all sectors are overvalued (bank shares are the most notable exception).