Water, water everywhere, and damned if it isn’t a prohibited financial transaction under US and/or EU law to drink it.

This week, Argentina is likely to default for the second time in the young century – on debt that it has already restructured once – if it does not reach a deal with holdout creditors by July 29. The holdouts can block payments on restructured bonds unless their own defaulted debt is paid at the same time. Third parties helping Argentina not to pay holdouts may face lawsuits.

Argentina is likely to bring the temple down on its head before paying the holdouts. Hardly stressed, it can pay. Argentina’s debt is less than half the size of its economy, while a recent devaluation took pressure off foreign exchange reserves used for paying the debt. This will not help restructured bondholders, though, should any obstructions occur in the last mile of the payments pipeline in New York.