Yet, investors may have a point. Short-term external debts on a remaining maturity basis, which includes the current portion of long-term debt, stood at $194bn at the end of 2008. That compares with $200bn of foreign exchange reserves, giving Korea one of Asia's skimpiest coverage ratios. Arguably the ratio is lower still if less liquid instruments are taken out of the equation. Leaving in asset-backed securities – supposedly mainly mortgage-backed securities issued by government-sponsored agencies – but excluding corporate bonds gives liquid reserves of about $170bn. On top of that, Korea can call on $13bn remaining from a $30bn US swap line and a further $20bn agreed with the Bank of Japan. (Another swap line, worth about $26bn and agreed with China, is essentially in local currency; the two sides are still discussing how this will be used and there are no guarantees on conversion into US dollars). The swap lines, in effect, bring coverage back up to just over one times.
Of course, this may not even be needed. Bank of Korea data imply banks are happily rolling over Korean debt. But how long this will continue is a moot point. European banks, spooked by their eastern European commitments, are among the most aggressive shrinkers of loan books. Unfortunately for Korea, according to BIS data, they are also the biggest lenders to the country, funding 58 per cent of total liabilities at the end of September. The markets have it right: Korea is not out of the woods yet.