China GDP figures for the first half of the year are published on Tuesday, providing the latest indication of whether US President Donald Trump’s trade war is weighing on the economy.

Despite trade tensions and deflationary pressures, the country is widely expected to report a strong figure. A Bloomberg poll of economists still forecasts the country to grow 5.3 per cent in the first six months of 2025, in line with the government’s growth target “of around 5 per cent” for the year. 

But the strong growth has been helped by “frontloading activities”, Deutsche Bank said in a recent note. Trump’s real and imagined tariffs have prompted businesses around the world to rush out shipments and orders before the duties take effect, boosting short term economic figures for export-oriented economies such as China.