The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation metric is expected to show a slight tick uptick in price pressures in May, with an acceleration in both core and headline measures, as the effects of Donald Trump’s tariffs begin to appear in US prices. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures index data for May, which economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast will show a headline figure of 2.3 per cent year over year, up from 2.1 per cent the month prior. The core measure, which strips out the volatile food and energy sectors and is most closely watched by the Fed, is expected to be 2.6 per cent, a step up from the 2.5 per cent rate in April.

The PCE data will follow a modest jump in consumer price pressures recorded earlier this month, which showed CPI at 2.4 per cent in May, below economists’ expectations of 2.5 per cent, but above the rate of 2.3 per cent recorded in April.