Defence is the new tech when it comes to hot sectors. Or is it the other way round? That’s a question worth asking as defence stocks have rallied in recent weeks on everything from news of Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defence shield, to the new UK-EU security pact that would give UK defence companies access to Europe’s €150bn defence fund, to the broad understanding that US-China strategic competition is here to stay and Europe will be spending more on its own defence.

The issue is whether all this new spending will pay off, or whether technology disruption is changing not only the nature of war but the business of defence itself.

Military budgets in the US have long been huge (defence is the single largest item in the federal budget) and are getting even bigger under Trump. The president has requested a record $1tn for defence in the “big beautiful” budget bill, which just passed the House by one vote and will now go to the Senate.