The world as we know it is crumbling, we are told — at least the global economy. It is commonplace now to fear a fragmentation of economic links because of geopolitical concerns, protectionism and irreconcilable policy differences on issues from decarbonisation to data privacy.

As we frequently emphasise in Free Lunch, the world is not so much “deglobalising” as dividing into large regional blocs that continue to integrate apace within them. (Hence the finding from the IMF that trade is deepening between geopolitically aligned countries while slowing down between politically distant ones.) The scenario I find most plausible is one where supply chains become more organised around three blocs — centred on China, the EU and the US — but where there is more rather than less cross-border economic activity within each bloc.

Big questions are raised by such a development. Will the US and the EU act as one bloc or two? Is the optimal scale for industries from cars to semiconductors global, or are continental supply chains enough to harness the full economies of scale available? But these are questions about and for the big blocs, even if the answers will affect everyone.